Is it best for the Maple Leafs to get their season struggles out of the way now? David Alter investigates.
When assessing how well NHL teams will fare in the Stanley Cup playoffs, one major metric I prioritize is their performance after the NHL Trade Deadline.
In my opinion, all data from before that time period can be disregarded for several reasons. After the trade deadline, your team is set. You can’t add anyone to your team to improve dramatically, except for a player returning from a playoff injury. While that does happen, it’s not very common.
There is no longer the uncertainty of whether you will be traded. No longer is there a cloud hanging over your head that you may or may not be dealt. Your name might still come up in trade rumors. While that is stressful, the only focus should be on hockey.
There is still a lot of hockey to play, but based on the Maple Leafs’ recent performance, they could be in trouble. It’s not just about the results, although those are important. It’s more about the quality of their play. Did they dictate the pace of play? Did they deserve to win? There can be acceptable losses, especially in the regular season when a team has a decent record and can recover in the next game.
Looking back at the major first-round upsets in recent seasons, there has been a common factor. The team that defeated the top seed was playing better towards the end of the season. This was evident when the Florida Panthers upset the NHL-best Boston Bruins in 2023 and advanced to the Stanley Cup Final. This was also the case when the Columbus Blue Jackets easily defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2019.
Therefore, the Maple Leafs’ poor performance since the start of March is a cause for concern. Teams strive to play their best at this time of year. The 2019 Stanley Cup Champions had their worst performance early in the season. That led to a head coaching change, and Craig Berube helped lead the team’s comeback to win the Cup. In November 2023, the Edmonton Oilers fired Todd Woodcroft after an abysmal 3-9-1 start and hired Kris Knoblauch. Edmonton went on to play in Game 7 of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final.
There has been much discussion about the Leafs currently lacking an identity. At the beginning of the season, the focus was clearly going to be on improved defense and goaltending. While they started strong, the defense has declined somewhat. In the past, when that has happened, the Leafs have been able to rely on their goal scorers to compensate by scoring goals. That is not happening, with No. 34 scoring only 24 goals in 51 games. As of games played on March 16, his shooting percentage is 11.9%, which would be the lowest of his NHL career if the season ended then.
Additionally, there were Mitch Marner trade reports that surfaced after the deadline.
The demanding travel schedule and the significant adversity surrounding the team these days add to the challenge. The last time the NHL had a two-week break in February, the Leafs went on an eight-game losing streak, falling from second in their division to out of playoff contention. History does not necessarily repeat itself, but it often rhymes. I have always felt this team could benefit from facing significant adversity before the postseason. Perhaps this is what they needed, as William Nylander stated after the team’s 4-2 loss to the Ottawa Senators on Saturday: “Better it happens now than later.”