“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
– George Santayana, “The Life of Reason: The Phases of Human Progress” (1905-06)
Chances are you’ve heard some version of this phrase before. It’s been used for everything from politics to business to figuring out how to fix your car. We use it to remind people that past events tend to happen again in the future, but what Santayana was really getting at was how important it is to keep records. We need that data for our education, so we can do better next time.
That’s sports betting in a nutshell. If you’re one of the thousands of people betting on March Madness here at Bodog Sportsbook, and you want to improve your chances of beating the basketball odds, you need to look at the basketball trends. While past events don’t always predict future results, they do tend to repeat themselves – which is why sharp bettors are always “studying the tape” to see what happened in previous matchups and tournaments.
The trick is knowing what to look for. We’ll show you which March Madness betting trends you can use at Bodog to get a leg up on the competition. Let’s start at the top with the four No. 1 seeds in your March Madness bracket.
The Most Reliable March Madness Trends for Bettors
It’s the closest thing to a sure bet: The No. 1 seed beating the No. 16 seed in the First Round. Dating back to 1985, when the Big Dance expanded to 64 teams (68 now including the First Four), the top seeds are 154-2 straight up in these games. Only Virginia (to UMBC in 2018) and Purdue (to FDU in 2023, despite the presence of Canada’s own Zach Edey) have failed to cash in as moneyline favourites.
Granted, those March Madness moneyline odds get pretty chalky when it’s the 1 vs. 16 matchup. But even though these massive favourites are all brand-name programs with huge followings, they’re still a profitable 84-70-2 ATS (54.4%) since 1985. Some No. 1 seeds are more reliable than others, though, as we’ll discover shortly.
The Magic of the No. 12 Seed: Why They’re Always Dangerous
When it comes to filling out your March Madness bracket, you might already be familiar with this old chestnut: Go for the No. 12 seeds. As a general rule, those teams will be champions from some of the more competitive mid-majors, while their 5-seed opponents will be underperforming at-large teams from the Power 6 conferences – although recent years have seen programs like San Diego State (MWC) and Saint Mary’s (WCC) hoover up those 5s.
Overall, the No. 5 seed has a record of 101-55 (64.7%) in this First Round matchup, meaning the 12-seed has pulled off the upset over one-third of the time. And the No. 12 team has retained some of that betting value at 80-71-4 ATS (53.0%) despite “everyone” knowing about this particular March Madness trend.
Here’s a typical example that savvy bettors pounced on at the 2024 Tournament: No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 James Madison. The Badgers (–5 at Bodog) were the Big Ten bullies, but they finished fifth in their conference, while the Dukes were the Sun Belt champions after upsetting Michigan State in non-conference play. Final score: Wisconsin 61, James Madison 72.
How Far Can Cinderella Teams Really Go?
Don’t get too carried away with these loveable underdogs. Sure, they often have some kind of gimmick like the Princeton offence or the Box and 1 zone defence that will get them past an unprepared and unmotivated First Round opponent. But how well do they hold up against tougher competition in the Second Round and beyond?
Not very well. Only one seed numbered No. 8 or higher has ever won the NCAA men’s title, and that was the 1985 Villanova Wildcats in Year 1 under the new format. Most of the Cinderella hopefuls get eliminated in the Second Round; very few even make it as far as the Elite Eight.
But it is happening more often. College hoops is getting a lot more competitive, with all that NIL cash to throw at all that international talent – including Canadian standouts like Edey who have found success south of the border. No. 15 Saint Peter’s made it all the way to the Elite Eight in 2022; No. 11 North Carolina State reached the Final Four last year, joining UCLA (2021), Loyola-Chicago (2018), VCU (2011), George Mason (2006) and LSU (1986) in the history books.
Are Blue Bloods Always a Safe Bet?
We started our March Madness betting preview by showing you how strong those No. 1 overall seeds are in the First Round. But just like everyone else, they find it tougher the further they go. Top seeds are just 142-138-4 ATS (50.7%) overall at the Big Dance over the past 11 years, falling short of the 52.4% you need to make a profit at the standard –110 vigorish.
If you’ve watched college hoops before, you’ve seen the bandwagons that form around the most famous of these teams, the so-called “blue bloods” like Duke, Kansas, Kentucky and UCLA. These are the teams who have won the most championships, which is why we pay attention to them in the first place:
– UCLA: 11
– Kentucky: 8
– Connecticut: 6
– North Carolina: 6
– Duke: 5
– Indiana: 5
– Kansas: 4
As you might expect in hindsight, these title-winning teams have also performed well at the March Madness betting window. Here’s the same list with each team’s record over their past 30 games at the Big Dance:
– UCLA: 19-11 SU, 15-15 ATS
– Kentucky: 21-9 SU, 14-12-4 ATS
– Connecticut: 25-5 SU, 24-6 ATS
– North Carolina: 23-7 SU, 17-12-1 ATS
– Duke: 23-7 SU, 17-13 ATS
– Indiana: 16-14 SU, 14-15-1 ATS
– Kansas: 21-9 SU, 14-16 ATS
Again, some of these blue bloods have done better than others. UConn is coming off back-to-back championships, so their 30-game sample will naturally be superior to everyone else’s. Indiana has been in and out of the national conversation since they fired head coach Bobby Knight at the turn of the millennium. Maybe they should switch their team colours to blue like the other guys.
Betting Against the Public: Does Fading Popular Teams Work?
Part of the difficulty some of these famous teams have covering the spread is the increased hype that comes with winning. In theory, the deeper these teams get into the tournament, the more money people wager on them, pumping up those point spreads and making it easier for the underdogs to cash in.
Let’s take last year’s tournament run by Duke as an example. The No. 4 Duke Blue Devils opened as 11.5-point favourites for their first-round matchup with No. 13 Vermont; by the time the NCAAB odds closed at Bodog, Duke was a 12.5-point chalk.
Naturally, you would have been better served betting against the Blue Devils closer to tip-off than at the open. But as you can see above, fading Duke hasn’t been particularly profitable lately. They beat the Catamounts 64-47, then this dynamic got turned on its ear in the Second Round, when the Cinderella team from James Madison moved from +7.5 to +6 at Bodog before falling 93-55 to Duke.
The best advice we can give you when it comes to “fading the public” is to be selective with your March Madness picks. Be more likely to fade those public teams with head coaches that have poor ATS records at the Big Dance, like Tennessee’s Rick Barnes (18-30 ATS lifetime), while steering clear of teams like Michigan State, where Tom Izzo is 30-20-2 ATS at the helm.
How Tournament Pace Impacts Over/Under Bets
Our March Madness betting guide wraps up with one of the best value bets on the board: college basketball totals. Will the two teams in question combine to score Over or Under their posted total at Bodog? The answer depends in large part on how quickly they move up and down the court.
Good thing they keep track of this sort of thing. Ken Pomeroy’s free advanced college stats include Adjusted Tempo, an estimate of how many possessions each Division I team sees per 40 minutes – which also happens to be the length of a regulation D-1 game. As we go to press, Alabama leads the nation in tempo at 74.9 AdjT; Duke ranks No. 253 overall at 66.1, and Drake is dead last at 59.0.
So how do those numbers hold up at the betting window? Here are the over/under records at press time for each of those three teams this season:
– Alabama: Over 16-14-1
– Duke: Over 16-15
– Drake: Under 16-12
There’s indeed some correlation here – but you’ll need more information than this to make sharper bets. Consider as well each team’s offensive and defensive ratings; Alabama (No. 4 offence, No. 32 defence) is naturally predisposed to scoring, while Drake (No. 77 offence, No. 47 defence) is more about keeping points off the board. Now that you’ve got these March Madness trends in your betting arsenal, you’re ready to hit the NCAA college basketball lines at Bodog Sportsbook. We’ll have even more tips and analysis for you as the Big Dance approaches, so keep hitting that Refresh button, and we’ll see you on the hardcourt.