We have reached the NBA Finals and a new champion is guaranteed. Take a look at who Aaron Rose predicts to be the champion.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers may be small-market franchises, yet they play a brand of basketball die-hards should love. Oklahoma City leans on the league’s stingiest defense and an MVP maestro in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Indiana counters with Tyrese Haliburton’s high-octane offense and fearless shooting. For anyone who enjoys pace, ball movement, and rising stars, this matchup promises pure basketball bliss.
The Numbers Behind the Finals
Oklahoma City’s identity begins on defense. The Thunder own the league’s top unit, built on relentless perimeter pressure and textbook rotations that limit clean looks and transition chances. Indiana answers with the postseason’s hottest shooting team, hitting 40% from behind the arc while moving the ball with quick precision led by Haliburton. Both teams cherish the ball, ranking near the top in fewest turnovers and fast-break points allowed. Half-court execution should decide the series. Oklahoma City must chase shooters off the three-point line while Indiana must stay hot and mistake-free. The side that remains composed and efficient under pressure will have the edge.
Matchups That Matter
The spotlight falls on the point guards. Haliburton powers Indiana’s up-tempo attack, slicing defenses with quick passes. He will see constant pressure from Montreal-native Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace, each bringing a relentless form of defensive disruption.
On the other end, Gilgeous-Alexander is a master of timing and angles. He probes patiently, hunting mid-range pull-ups and contact at the rim. Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard must stay disciplined, contest without fouling, and live with tough twos rather than threes or free throws. Because both teams are elite at preventing transition scores, these battles will play out mainly in the half court. The star who more consistently bends the opposing defense could end up steering the Finals.
How the Pacers Can Win
Indiana keeps defying belief. The Pacers beat the Bucks in five, stunned the Cavaliers in five, and knocked out the Knicks in six. Their formula blends speed, unselfish play, and impressive shot making. Haliburton pushes the ball, Pascal Siakam supplies playoff savvy and steady scoring, and Myles Turner drags shot-blockers to the perimeter with pick-and-pop threes. Nesmith tackles the toughest assignment every night, while Nembhard has grown into a calm late-game creator.
Indiana lacks the traditional superstar depth seen in most Finals teams, yet it thrives by trusting its system. Staying hot from deep and keeping turnovers in single digits are non-negotiable against Oklahoma City’s transition attack. If the Pacers keep firing confidently and hold their nerve defensively, they can extend a postseason run that has already exceeded expectations.
How the Thunder Win
Oklahoma City enters as the favorite after a 68-win season that produced the best point differential in decades. Gilgeous-Alexander controls tempo, draws fouls, and closes games with surgical efficiency, eyeing a historic first Finals MVP for a Canadian player. Around him, Jalen Williams offers reliable scoring and secondary playmaking, while Chet Holmgren protects the rim and stretches defenses. Dort, Caruso, and Wallace pressure ballhandlers into mistakes that feed fastbreak opportunities
The Thunder’s true advantage lies in cohesion. Roles are clear, the ball moves freely, and poise rarely slips. Each series has featured a timely boost from a different bench player, whether Isaiah Joe’s clutch threes or Caruso’s game-saving stop. If Oklahoma City continues to value possessions, rotate crisply, and let Gilgeous-Alexander orchestrate late-clock sets, the franchise is positioned to celebrate its first championship in franchise history.
My Pick: Thunder in Five
Indiana’s fearless shooting and collective spirit should earn one win, but Oklahoma City’s depth, defense, and closing polish should give them more than enough to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy. Gilgeous-Alexander is poised to cap an MVP season with Finals MVP honors. With a young core and a stockpile of future assets, the Thunder appear ready to launch a long championship window. It may be the obvious choice, yet it remains the right one.