The Toronto Raptors say they’re a playoff team. Aaron Rose gives his view on that very statement.
The messaging has been consistent since the moment last season ended. The days of tanking, hoping for lottery luck, and celebrating moral victories are over. With Brandon Ingram set to make his debut and Scottie Barnes beginning Year 1 of his max contract, the time for excuses has passed.
Oddsmakers, however, are not nearly as confident. Bodog has Toronto’s win total set at 37.5 after last year’s 30-win campaign, with the Raptors listed at +175 to make the playoffs, implying just a 36% probability. At +7000 to win the East and +3500 to take the Atlantic, they sit 11th in conference futures and outside the projected Play-In picture.
This disconnect sets the stage for one of the league’s most intriguing prove-it seasons. The roster is expensive, expectations are higher than they have been in years, and the results will ultimately determine whether the optimism inside the locker room or the skepticism in the betting markets proves right.
A Hot Start
The first eight games will reveal a lot about this team. Toronto opens on the road in Atlanta before returning home to face Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks. From there, the Raptors head south for a Texas two-step against Dallas and San Antonio, then return home to take on Houston. The stretch closes with matchups against Cleveland, Memphis, and another meeting with Milwaukee.
For a group coming off consecutive losing seasons, even a 4-4 start would be respectable. Anything better would be an early signal that this roster is ready to take a step forward. Just as important, this will be the first chance to see how Ingram fits beside Barnes. If the pairing clicks quickly, Toronto could change the narrative around the team much sooner than expected.
Taking on the East
Right after the opening stretch, the Raptors head into a five-game road trip that could set the tone for the season. Over eight days they will see Atlanta, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Cleveland and Indiana.
These games may not be marquee matchups, but they are the ones that decide playoff positioning. The middle of the East is as crowded as ever, and dropping games to direct competitors can be the difference between securing sixth place or falling to 11th. Coming out of this stretch above .500 would show that Toronto can hold its own in the playoff race. Struggling here would raise real questions about whether the team has improved enough to escape Play-In territory.
Stacking Wins
From November 17 to 29 the schedule finally lightens. Toronto will see Charlotte twice along with Washington, Brooklyn, Cleveland and Indiana, a run that offers a clear opportunity to pile up wins.
Charlotte, Washington and Brooklyn are all projected to finish below the Raptors in the standings, while Indiana is considered a direct rival for a Play-In spot. For a team trying to create separation in the middle of the conference, taking care of business here is crucial.
If the Raptors are serious about making a meaningful step forward, this is where they need to prove it. Banking wins in November would create valuable breathing room before the tougher stretches of the winter. Teams that fail to capitalize in moments like this often spend the rest of the year chasing the standings. For Toronto, handling this run successfully could mean heading into December with momentum rather than playing from behind.
The West Coast Swing
January brings the season’s toughest challenge. Toronto will head west for five games against the Lakers, Warriors, Kings, Trail Blazers and Thunder. It is a demanding slate filled with stars: LeBron James and Luka Doncic in Los Angeles, Stephen Curry at Golden State, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Oklahoma City, and a Sacramento team waiting on the second night of a back-to-back.
The timing makes it even more significant. The trip comes less than two weeks before the February 5 trade deadline, which means the results could shape how the front office approaches the rest of the season. A strong showing could encourage management to add reinforcements, while a poor run might lead to a more cautious approach focused on the future.
Travel fatigue, late tip-offs and top-tier opponents have historically been difficult for Eastern Conference teams. A stumble here could stall Toronto’s progress and pull them closer to the bottom of the standings. Coming out of the trip with two or more wins would be considered a success and would keep postseason hopes alive.
The Final Push
The season ends with a stretch that might not look overwhelming on paper, but it will almost certainly be crucial. Toronto will visit Boston, play Miami twice at home, head to New York to face the Knicks, and cap the season at home against Brooklyn. The finale against the Nets may prove meaningless, but the Celtics and Heat could be direct competition for the Raptors in the standings. In the Eastern Conference, it always seems to come down to the last week. Weird things happen late in the year, whether it is a surprise upset, a contender resting stars, or a bottom team playing spoiler. With Toronto expected to be hovering around the Play-In line, every result could swing their fate. This final push will likely decide whether the Raptors secure a playoff spot or see their season end in disappointment.