They couldn’t, could they? Aaron Rose praises a memorable season so far for the Toronto Blue Jays. But just how far can they go?
The Toronto Blue Jays have reached the three-quarter mark as one of baseball’s biggest surprises. They have been the American League’s best team for much of the summer, fueled by breakout performances and contributions from across the roster. A playoff spot is nearly certain. September will be about locking down the division and earning a first-round bye. October will be about finally ending the franchise’s postseason wins drought and turning an unforgettable regular season into a pennant run.
Who Makes the Playoff Rotation?
The trade deadline addition of Shane Bieber brought both depth and high-end potential, giving the Blue Jays six legitimate starting options once he is ready. If Bieber returns to form after Tommy John’s surgery, he will almost certainly be one of the first three starters in October. Kevin Gausman is essentially locked into another spot, leaving Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, and Eric Lauer competing for the remaining two.
Lauer’s 2.82 ERA is one of the season’s biggest surprises, though his track record is limited. Scherzer has looked sharper in recent weeks and offers unmatched postseason experience, but at 41 he is not the same pitcher he once was. Bassitt’s inconsistency makes him the most likely odd man out for now. Toronto may not have a true ace, but the depth of its rotation gives them the flexibility to match up with any opponent in a short series.
Can They Handle Lefties?
Toronto has done well to mix and match its lineup, but the roster is still vulnerable against top-tier left-handed pitching. In October, that could mean facing Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Framber Valdez, Max Fried, or Carlos Rodón, which is a concern.
Addison Barger has been a breakout performer but has struggled against lefties. Daulton Varsho provides power and Gold Glove defense but also has difficulty in those matchups. Nathan Lukes and Joey Loperfido have emerged as everyday contributors, yet both are left-handed hitters who struggle against left-handed pitching. Andrés Giménez, when healthy, will be the everyday second baseman, but he too has significant splits.
The return of switch-hitter Anthony Santander would help balance the lineup, but there is no clear timetable for his recovery. Without him, Toronto risks having multiple lineup spots neutralized against elite lefties in a playoff series.
Is the Bullpen Good Enough?
The Blue Jays made additions to the bullpen at the deadline, but other contenders landed bigger names. Louis Varland brings a triple-digit fastball with a heavy ground ball profile. Seranthony Domínguez has elite swing-and-miss stuff but can be erratic. Jeff Hoffman has been reliable for the most part but carries a 4.50 ERA and is coming off a rough five-walk outing against the Dodgers.
If Yimi García can return healthy, it would give the Jays another dependable late-inning arm, but there is no guarantee. The group has talent and variety, yet there will certainly be tense moments. October magnifies every high-leverage situation, and Toronto’s bullpen will be tested.
Who Are the X-Factors?
Santander and García top the list. If both return, Toronto gains a middle-of-the-order bat and a high-leverage reliever just in time for the postseason. Without them, the challenge becomes steeper.
Varsho is another player who could swing a series. He does not hit for average or get on base often, but his power is a true difference-maker. He has more home runs than singles this season, and in the playoffs one mistake pitch can decide everything. If Varsho makes the most of those opportunities, he could be Toronto’s most dangerous bat in October.
Can the Stars Deliver?
This team still revolves around Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and Bo Bichette. They have been the core for years but have yet to win a playoff game together. With questions on the pitching side, the offense will need to lead. Guerrero’s $500 million contract comes with the expectation that he will carry the team in September and October. Bichette is headed for free agency and could punctuate a strong season with big postseason moments. Springer has looked rejuvenated, showing flashes of the form that made him the 2017 World Series MVP.
Toronto has had one of the best offenses in baseball all season. To break through in October, that production must continue, and the biggest stars will need to shine brightest when it matters most.