With the NBA season heading towards crunch time, Aaron Rose gives his take on the front runners for awards as well as the team best placed to see off the Celtics.
The NBA All-Star break marks the two-thirds point of the season, and while plenty has already been decided, the most important stretch is still to come. The MVP race remains up for grabs, though Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has positioned himself as the frontrunner. Oklahoma City has emerged as the team to beat in the West, while the East is more complicated—Cleveland owns the best record, but Boston still looms as the reigning champ. Meanwhile, some teams are on the verge of collapse, with Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Dallas all facing the real possibility of missing the postseason entirely.
With just under 30 games to go, every win and loss takes on extra weight. Contenders will look to fine-tune their rosters for a deep playoff push, while others are simply trying to stay afloat. The NBA season is a marathon, but now? Now it’s a sprint to the finish.
Shai Leads the MVP Race, but It’s Not Over
The MVP race isn’t over, but it’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s to lose. He’s the best player on the best team, and that usually counts for something. The Thunder sit atop the NBA at 44-10, and Shai leads the league in scoring with 32.5 points per game on absurd efficiency. His blend of elite shot creation, playmaking, and crunch-time dominance has elevated OKC from an exciting upstart to a legitimate powerhouse.
Nikola Jokić is close—but not close enough. His all-around brilliance and nightly triple-doubles keep Denver in the mix, but the Nuggets don’t have the same team success as OKC. Shai has been the driving force behind a team that’s not just leading the West, but the entire league. That matters.
If the Thunder slow down or Jokić surges, this race could tighten. But right now, Shai is in pole position, and it’s up to the rest of the field to catch him.
Boston Still Owns the East Until Proven Otherwise
Cleveland might own the best record in the East at 44-10, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves—Boston is still the favourite. The Celtics breezed through the playoffs last year, dominating their way to a championship. It won’t be quite as easy this time, but until proven otherwise, they’re still the team to beat.
The Cavaliers have put together a fantastic season, powered by a top-10 defense and the league’s best offense that runs through Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. They’ve got the size, depth, and talent to make a deep run. But regular-season success and winning in June aren’t the same thing. Boston has already climbed the mountain. They’ve won the games that matter most.
If Cleveland wants to change the narrative, there’s only one way to do it: beat Boston in the playoffs. Until then, the road to the Finals still runs through TD Garden.
OKC Runs the West—And Maybe the League
The Thunder have officially taken control of the West. At 44-10, they own the best record in the NBA, and it’s not hard to see why—they have the best defense in the league by a mile, a superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who no one can stop, and a system that makes life miserable for opponents.
If they can get Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein healthy at the same time, good luck trying to score inside. The Thunder already suffocate teams defensively, and having two elite rim protectors in the lineup would make them an even bigger nightmare. Their only real weakness? Three-point shooting. OKC ranks 17th in the league from deep, which could be an issue in a playoff series if teams load up on Shai and dare them to shoot.
But here’s the thing—it might not matter. Shai is borderline unstoppable, the defense is already elite, and they have the size, depth, and athleticism to wear teams down. The Thunder are the team to beat in the West—and maybe the entire league.
The Playoff Bubble: Who’s in Trouble?
Philadelphia entered the season with championship aspirations, but now they’re the biggest disappointment in the league. Joel Embiid hasn’t looked healthy all season, and there’s already talk that he might need another surgery this summer. The Sixers have looked shaky all year, and Paul George has been a mess, failing to provide the steady second option they desperately needed. At this point, it makes more sense to shut it down and embrace the tank rather than limp into the play-in just to get bounced early.
Phoenix, meanwhile, is spiraling toward an offseason that could redefine the franchise. The Suns are a mess now, and if they don’t turn things around, they might be staring at a Kevin Durant trade this summer. The Booker-Durant duo hasn’t been enough to carry them, the defense is a problem, and the roster is paper-thin. If this season ends in disaster, how much longer will KD stick around?
Then there’s Dallas. Trading Luka Dončić to the Lakers was bad enough, but now they’re running out of bodies. Anthony Davis is hurt, and so is the rest of their frontcourt. With no rim protection, no rebounding, and no depth, the Mavericks are teetering on the edge of missing the playoffs entirely—a nightmare scenario after losing their franchise player for nothing.