Aaron Rose is back at Bodog News to run through the winners and losers of the NBA offseason to date.
The 2025 NBA basketball offseason is winding down. The draft is behind us. Most of free agency is done. As Summer League tips off in Vegas, teams are shifting from splashy moves to roster cleanup. Some front offices nailed it. Others botched their shot. A few reshaped their futures entirely. With most of the dust settled, here’s a look at the biggest winners and losers so far.
Winners: Atlanta Hawks
In less than a few weeks, the Hawks have completely changed their outlook. Under new general manager Onsi Saleh, Atlanta made the most of its flexibility, reshaping the roster, adding key talent, and picking up future assets without sacrificing much in return.
Kristaps Porziņģis gives them a floor-spacing rim protector who fits well next to Onyeka Okongwu. They added Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard, two steady guards who bring defense, shooting, and lineup versatility. Just as importantly, Atlanta secured an unprotected 2026 first-round pick from New Orleans that could land near the top of a loaded draft.
Bodog has the Hawks at +750 to win the East, the fourth-best odds in the conference. A team that looked stuck in the play-in tier is now positioned as a top-six contender with room to grow.
There is still cap flexibility, internal upside, and no pressure on the Trae Young situation. Atlanta upgraded its present and improved its future. This is what a winning offseason looks like.
Losers: Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks made one of the strangest decisions of the offseason by waiving and stretching Damian Lillard to sign Myles Turner. On the surface, they addressed a need by replacing Brook Lopez. In reality, they created a bigger problem. Milwaukee still does not have a point guard, and the roster remains thin and flawed.
Even with Turner and Giannis Antetokounmpo, this is not a serious contender. The depth is limited, the offense lacks creation, and the core is aging. Bodog has the Bucks at +6,600 to win the title, a steep fall from their place among the elite.
What makes it worse is that they could have done nothing. With Lillard sidelined, Milwaukee had the option to ride out a down year, preserve future flexibility, and try again later. Instead, they chose to stretch Lillard’s deal and limit themselves for the next five seasons.
The Bucks are slipping, and it feels like the end of Antetokounmpo’s time in Milwaukee is coming. Maybe not today, but probably sooner than they want to admit.
Losers: New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans won 21 games last season. They have not done much to get better, which has been raised as a previous concern.
Their biggest offseason addition was Jordan Poole, coming off a lackluster stint in Washington. They traded CJ McCollum to make room for him, then used an unprotected 2026 first-round pick to move up ten spots in the draft for Derik Queen. That pick could land in the lottery, and while Queen has talent, he is unlikely to help right away.
New Orleans still has Zion Williamson, but his availability remains a constant question. The rest of the roster lacks structure and identity. There is no floor general, and the talent on paper continues to underdeliver.
Bodog has the Pelicans at +12,500 to win the West, which feels about right. This does not look like a playoff team. Giving away a valuable pick only makes the long-term outlook worse. They needed smart, stabilizing moves in a brutal conference. They went the other way.
Winners: Houston Rockets
The Rockets made the biggest move of the offseason by trading for Kevin Durant. It was the kind of swing that changes a team’s ceiling overnight. Durant gives Houston the elite half-court shot creation it lacked last postseason without disrupting the young core already in place.
But it was not just about Durant. Houston also signed Dorian Finney-Smith and Clint Capela, adding defense, experience, and lineup versatility. Finney-Smith replaces Dillon Brooks as the veteran wing defender and brings stability on and off the court. Capela provides depth behind Steven Adams and gives the frontcourt another reliable option. The reworked deal for Fred VanVleet keeps their veteran point guard at a more manageable number.
Even after trading Jalen Green and Brooks, the Rockets kept Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., and Tari Eason. They stayed under the first apron. They improved on both ends and retained their flexibility.
Bodog has Houston at +700 to win the championship, the second-best odds in the league. This team expects to contend right away. They have every reason to.
Losers: Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers still have LeBron James and Luka Dončić, but they’re far from a title favorite. After a first-round exit and a quiet offseason, Los Angeles looks stuck between timelines. They added Jake LaRavia and Deandre Ayton, both reasonable moves but not enough for a team with two All-NBA players.
James exercised his $52.6 million option with the expectation to contend now, but the Lakers are out of trade assets until 2026 and have limited ways to add real help. Even with Dončić in his prime, this roster does not look close to championship-caliber.
Bodog has the Lakers at +1,500 to win the title, a number based more on star power than actual roster strength. James seems increasingly frustrated, and it is fair to wonder whether a trade request could eventually be on the table. The final chapter of his career is starting to feel far more uncertain than expected.
Winners: Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets broke up their title core and may have come out stronger. Swapping Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson gives Denver a steadier hand on the wing and much-needed cap relief. Porter’s shooting has been valuable, but his inconsistency hurt the team in big moments. Johnson brings more reliable spacing and fits cleanly next to Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.
They also rebuilt the bench with real contributors. Bruce Brown returned on a minimum deal. Tim Hardaway Jr. adds shooting. Jonas Valanciunas steps in as the backup center, a clear upgrade over last year’s options. This is a deeper, more complete group around the league’s best player.
Giving up a 2032 first-round pick hurts, especially for a team that has repeatedly used future assets to save money. But Denver remains a top-tier contender with better depth and fewer weak links.
Bodog has the Nuggets at +800 to win the championship, third-best in the NBA. They are still very much in the mix.