College basketball is taking over. The NBA might be the world’s top professional league, but at this time of year, it’s all about March Madness: the NCAA Division I Men’s College Basketball Tournament. This is the biggest sporting event on the betting calendar here at Bodog Sportsbook, with 68 teams playing 67 games to determine this year’s champion.
It isn’t just the excitement of the tournament itself that has basketball fans glued to their streaming devices. The quality of play across Division I – and especially the “Power 6” major conferences – has grown by leaps and bounds since the NCAA started allowing players to receive NIL (Name, Image and Likeness) payments in 2022.
This year’s crop of college prospects also happens to be one of the best in recent times. Pro teams like the Toronto Raptors are actively tanking their NBA seasons by playing their third- and fourth-stringers, all for a better chance of selecting Duke forward Cooper Flagg with the No. 1 overall pick this June at the 2025 NBA Draft. And there’s plenty more talent where that came from.
No need to wait for June to see all of these great players in action. The Big Dance starts March 18 and lasts all the way through to the Championship Game on April 7 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Bodog Sportsbook is your No. 1 stop for March Madness odds in Canada and across the Americas. If you want to make smarter choices filling out your March Madness bracket, our Power 6 betting fundamentals will put you on the right track.
Understanding March Madness Betting Markets
First and foremost, you need to know the basketball odds and what they represent. There are dozens of different ways you can bet on college basketball at Bodog: the classic point spreads, moneylines and totals (also known as over/unders), as well as futures and more exotic bets like player props.
Point spreads have been part of the larger basketball picture since they were introduced in the 1940s, so if you’re just starting out with March Madness betting, this might be your best entry point. Or maybe you already have some experience with Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) or other fantasy leagues. If so, player props should be right up your alley.
You can learn more about all of the different March Madness betting options here at Bodog by consulting our FAQ and Help guides, as well as our comprehensive betting glossary. In the end, each bet on our NCAAB odds board will present a risk vs. reward situation. The more you understand both ends of that situation, the smarter choices you’ll make with your March Madness picks.
How to Analyze Seeding Trends
It might seem a bit overwhelming at first when you look at that 68-team March Madness bracket – including the eight teams in the “First Four” round in Dayton, Ohio – but figuring out the early rounds is easier when you break down the larger March Madness trends by seed. For example, No. 1 seeds are 515-131 straight-up (SU) since the Big Dance expanded to 64 teams for 1985, producing 25 champions along the way. That includes 154-2 SU in the opening round versus the No. 16 seed.
There’s a steep drop in quality from No. 1 to No. 2. Only five teams have won the Big Dance as the second seed, posting an overall tournament record of 363-151. And the records get worse the further down the ladder you go. No seed higher than 8 has ever won the championship, or even made the Championship Game for that matter.
The Art of Picking Upsets: When to Bet on Underdogs
Knowing how potent those No. 1 seeds are, you could just automatically fill your bracket with them for every game all the way through to the Final Four – but thousands of others will be doing the same, and you’ll have to split the prize money with them if you finish in a tie. The betting markets at Bodog require some nuance as well; some March Madness “Cinderella” candidates are more obvious than others.
As a general rule, the best upset picks in the early rounds are the champions of mid-major and low major conferences, facing at-large Power 6 teams coming off disappointing regular seasons. These picks are often found in the following seed vs. seed matchups (SU records and winning percentages included for the lower-numbered seed):
– 3 vs. 14 (133-23, .853)
– 4 vs. 13 (123-33, .788)
– 5 vs. 12 (101-55, .647)
Using Advanced Stats to Make Smarter Bets
Analyzing betting trends is useful, but as they say, past performance does not always indicate future results. Wins and losses don’t tell the whole story; dumb luck plays a larger role in sports than many of us understand, team sports in particular.
That’s why basketball scouts and fans alike use statistics to get a better read on how well teams and players perform. But these stats can be misleading as well. If you fixate on points, rebounds and assists per game, you’ll get a narrow and warped picture of what’s actually happening on the court.
Instead of raw counting stats, March Madness betting experts look at catch-all performance metrics like Box Plus/Minus (available for free at Sports Reference), where the aforementioned Cooper Flagg leads Division I at +16.9 as we go to press. This number suggests that Flagg is worth 16.9 points per 100 possessions above the average D-1 player to an average D-1 team.
Then you have Ken Pomeroy’s advanced team stats – the famous blue web page that all the sharp college hoops bettors keep in their tabs. Pomeroy has each D-1 team ranked by efficiency margin, with Duke (28-3 SU, 21-10 ATS) on top at +39.66 Net Rating through March 9. You can also see each team’s rating on offence and defence, as well as their tempo (possessions per 40 minutes), all adjusted for opponent.
Public Betting vs. Sharp Money: How to Read the Lines
So why do all the wise guys pay so much attention to these March Madness betting trends and advanced stats? Because that’s how they make their money. Betting on sports isn’t a competition between you and the sportsbook – it’s between you and the other bettors. Most of them are just betting for fun, throwing a few dollars here and there at their favourite teams and players. But those small bets add up, and when they do, the basketball odds move in response.
This is part of the reason you can often get a good deal on those high-numbered seeds in the opening round at the Big Dance. If the favourite is a brand-name team from a power conference, they’re likely to draw more of the betting action and become a heavier favourite before tip-off – like last year’s No. 4 Auburn Tigers, who moved from –13 to –14 at Bodog before losing 78-76 to the No. 13 Yale Bulldogs.
Conversely, you might find it prudent to bet the favourites early if you like them, rather than wait until game day when casual fans are more likely to flood the market. “Fade the public” used to be the mantra for sports betting; that’s harder to do these days at certain other sportsbooks, but here in Canada, Bodog is happy to welcome back all those sharp bettors who got their action capped elsewhere.
Managing Your Bankroll for Long-Term Success
Our last March Madness betting fundamental might be the most important. Nailing your college basketball picks is one thing; betting the right amount of money each time is another – and it can spell the difference between making a profit and draining your bankroll.
At the most basic level of bankroll management, never gamble with money you can’t afford to lose. Your Bodog Sportsbook account shouldn’t be treated as part of your income or investment portfolio. Even if you’re making money at it, sports betting should be done for entertainment, and budgeted accordingly.
Having said that, Bankroll Management 101 is all about maximizing the return on the money you deposit into your Bodog account, while minimizing your risk of bottoming out. Start by dividing your bankroll into 100 units, and then always bet one unit at a time. This will help you ride out those down streaks where your bets just aren’t cashing in, no matter how good you are at matchup analysis and finding value on the March Madness odds board. Remember what we said about dumb luck and sports.
Once you get really good at this, Bankroll Management 102 lets you change your bet size up or down to reflect how much of an edge you think you have on the betting market. Whatever level of experience you came here with, you now have the tools you need to bet on March Madness with confidence at Bodog Sportsbook – Canada’s home for the best basketball odds in the world.