If you’re using the latest NFL power rankings to guide your betting strategy, you’re making a mistake. Whether you’re looking at power rankings or even the NFL standings, you’re only getting half the story. They may show you how successful each team has been this year, but they won’t tell you if they’re a reliable betting option that can be trusted to cover the spread.
If you want a true indication of how each NFL team has performed for bettors this season, their record against the spread (ATS) is your best option. By factoring in the point spread from each of their games, a team’s ATS record shows exactly how many times they’ve covered the spread versus how many times they’ve fallen short.
With that in mind, we’ve taken a look around the league to find the NFL’s best (and worst) teams to bet on this season. We’ll also cover the best teams for betting Overs and Unders, so be sure to keep these trends in mind the next time you’re betting on football.
The NFL’s Best ATS Team
Seattle Seahawks (8-2 ATS)
The Seahawks may have suffered a heartbreaking divisional loss to the Rams this past Sunday, but they still managed to add another win to their ATS record. This is a great example of why a team’s record against the spread is so telling; even when they lose, Seattle manages to keep the game tight and cover the key number for bettors.
At 7-3, Seattle’s true record is not far behind, so there’s no doubt that this is a quality football team you can trust with your money. Darnold has been a great fit at quarterback for the Seahawks, and his chemistry with WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been on full display. The team also benefits from one of the league’s more underrated defences, giving up the sixth-fewest rushing yards and allowing just 19.3 points per game.
Seattle has been extremely reliable for bettors in 2025, blowing out inferior opponents and keeping games close against top-tier teams. If you’re looking for a dependable option to back on Sundays, the Seahawks have been as safe as it gets when it comes to NFL betting.
The NFL’s Worst ATS Team
Washington Commanders (3-8 ATS)
With a cover rate of just 27.3%, the Commanders are currently the NFL’s worst team to bet on in 2025. Coming off a surprising run to last season’s NFC Championship Game, Washington has failed to keep the magic going and has been letting bettors down on a weekly basis.
With Jayden Daniels battling through an injury-plagued sophomore slump, the team has stumbled to a 3-8 record, both in the standings and against the spread. The funny part is that they’re not even the worst team in their division; the Giants sit below them in the standings with just two wins on the campaign, but their ATS record is still ahead of Washington.
The Commanders have lost by 20+ points in four of their last five games, proving time and time again that they simply cannot compete without their franchise quarterback under centre. You should think about fading this team in the back half of the year, or even tailing their opponents in the hopes of winning some easy money.
The NFL’s Best Team for Overs
Vikings, Ravens, Bengals (7-3 Over)
Betting the Over is a great way to enjoy the excitement of an NFL game, so we looked at which teams were the best at exceeding the total on a regular basis. The Vikings, Ravens and Bengals tied for the best mark with 70% of their games going over the total.
Cincinnati’s inclusion on this list was expected; the team has a potent offensive attack paired with the NFL’s 32nd-ranked scoring defence, allowing 33.4 points per game. Minnesota and Baltimore were more of a surprise, given that these are two franchises who’ve always prided themselves on defence.
What do all three of these teams have in common? They all feature explosive playmakers on offence and a tendency for shootouts. If you just want to bet the Over and cheer for touchdowns, pick one of these teams and go along for the ride.
The NFL’s Best Teams for Unders
Denver Broncos (8-3 Under)
This is what happens when you combine a sputtering offence with one of the league’s premier defences. The Broncos have kept their games under the total in 8 of 11 games this season, making them a great option if you want to cash in on some boring football.
Despite being tied for the league’s best record at 9-2, Denver’s offence has struggled to put up points consistently. Luckily for Broncos fans, their defence is having another dominant campaign and keeps them in games by stifling opposing offences. The end result is a team that has printed money for Under bettors more than 70% of the time.
Denver seems to really tighten up versus top-tier opponents: the Broncos have gone 4-0 to the Under when listed as an underdog. So if you see them in a marquee matchup with a quality opponent, you may want to bet on the game staying below the total.
Final Breakdown
It’s important to keep these NFL betting trends in mind on Sundays. It’s easy to get drawn in by primetime games or uneven matchups, so verify each team’s ATS record before placing any bets.
Now that you’re equipped with all this ATS knowledge, it’s time to study next week’s lines and start building your bets. With a little research—and a little luck—you’ll be able to spot the best value and win big on the NFL.