The NHL’s elite have finally made their way back to Europe, set to battle in a true best-on-best tournament on the world’s biggest stage, and David Alter can hardly wait.
It has been a long decade for hockey fans; this marks the first time NHL players are competing in an Olympic-style setting since Sochi 2014. Given that Canada took home the Gold during that last encounter and remained dominant at the 4 Nations Face-Off last year, it is difficult to see them as anything other than the heavy favorites.
The Favorites and the Value
As of February 9, the betting lines at Bodog.eu reflect this dominance, listing Canada at even money (+100). While the USA is nipping at their heels at +180, the real value might lie further down the board. Sweden, situated at +900, is a tempting sleeper. With a defensive corps that rivals Canada’s and an elite goaltending tandem, the Swedes have the structure to stifle high-flying offenses. At nearly 10-to-1, that is a value bet worth considering.
The “Pastrnak” Play-In Strategy
If you are looking for an individual player prop with a narrative edge, look no further than Czechia’s David Pastrnak (+1200) to be the tournament’s top scorer. The reasoning is as much about math as it is about talent.
After the preliminary round, the top four seeds automatically advance to the quarterfinals. However, teams ranked 5th through 12th must play an “extra” qualification game to earn their spot. I expect Czechia to be the strongest team in that middle pack. If they play that additional qualification game and pull off an upset in the quarterfinals, Pastrnak could play the maximum number of games possible—giving him a 1-to-2 game “head start” over players on teams that cruised straight to the quarters. Furthermore, the Czechs have a massive chip on their shoulders after being excluded from the 4 Nations Face-Off. I still remember Pastrnak taking to social media after winning the 2024 Worlds, cheekily asking, “Now can we be in 4 Nations?” He is motivated, and at +1200, he’s the best value on the board.
The Maple Leafs Lens
For those following the Toronto Maple Leafs, there are several intriguing props to track. I like Auston Matthews at Over 6.5 points for the tournament. Similarly, William Nylander is a strong bet for the over. This tournament will likely be higher scoring than the oddsmakers anticipate. Expect top-tier teams to run up the score against underdogs in the preliminary round to secure better seeding for the bracket stage. That goal-differential incentive will keep stars like Matthews and Nylander aggressive until the final whistle.
On the blue line, Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a different story. He is currently +6600 to be Sweden’s top point-getter and +15000 to lead them in goals. While the payouts look like lottery tickets, avoid them. Sweden’s depth on defense means his power-play time will be limited.
Final Predictions
For the more conservative bettor, take Canada to concede the fewest goals in the group stages at +215. Their defensive depth is simply unparalleled. For Tournament MVP, it is hard to bet against Nathan MacKinnon (+1000). He has been absolute dynamite with the Colorado Avalanche this season, and his explosive speed on the larger European ice surface should be a nightmare for opposing defenders.
Finally, the matchup everyone is praying for—Canada vs. USA in the Final—currently pays +125. In a tournament of this caliber, the “Dream Final” is often the most logical conclusion and that prediction pays +125.