It is not a stretch to say that most of 2025 will be a year to forget for the Toronto Maple Leafs. During this calendar year, the team parted ways with elite forward Mitch Marner, receiving very little in return for his high-end talent. Furthermore, they began the 2025-26 campaign playing poorly and ended the year sitting outside of a playoff spot while riddled with injuries to key personnel. Can 2026 offer some improvement? David Alter gives his take.
The Sullivan Spark
Despite these struggles, there is reason for optimism. Toronto won three of its last four games to finish 2025 with seven out of a possible eight points. While the team is playing better, the question remains: is it enough?
The turnaround began with the power play. Just a few weeks ago, Toronto’s special teams were ranked at the bottom of the NHL as efficiency fell to a dismal 13 percent. Feeling the pressure to change, the club replaced assistant coach Marc Savard with Steve Sullivan. Sullivan immediately implemented tactical shifts, most notably moving Matthew Knies from the net front to the bumper position as part of a more fluid rotation of players.
The results have been immediate. In the three games since Sullivan took over, the Leafs have gone 4-for-8 on the man advantage. That success could have easily been 5-for-9 during Toronto’s 4-0 win against the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday; however, Nicolas Roy’s goal was officially recorded just one second after the Devils’ penalty expired. Effectively a power-play goal in all but the box score, this recent surge has moved the Leafs from 32nd to 26th in the NHL with an overall efficiency of 16 percent.
Defense and Goaltending
While the power play has improved, tactical shifts alone will not push the Leafs to their 2026 goals. The team must prove they can out-will their opponents on a nightly basis—a grit they have finally begun to show in recent days.
Despite conceding several quality chances against New Jersey on Dec. 30, the Leafs’ defense stood tall. Jake McCabe recorded eight blocked shots, helping to stabilize a blue line missing the injured Chris Tanev. Although the Devils held a 13-4 advantage in high-danger scoring chances at even strength, Joseph Woll was stellar, making 33 saves to earn his first shutout of the season. This combination of disciplined defending and solid goaltending—reminiscent of the form that led them to the top of the Atlantic Division in 2024-25—remains the key to sustained success.
A Narrow Path Forward
The road ahead is complicated by a mounting injury list. The Leafs ended 2025 without Auston Matthews or William Nylander in the lineup. Both stars are dealing with lower-body injuries and have already missed time for other ailments this season. While it is difficult to rely on injured players to maintain elite production, Toronto simply needs them back and fully healthy to achieve any meaningful success.
The primary problem for the Leafs is that they simply can’t afford any more off nights. The Eastern Conference standings are incredibly tight; currently, even the last-place team holds a points percentage above .500. The Buffalo Sabres serve as a cautionary tale of how difficult it is to make up ground; despite winning nine straight games, they remained outside of a playoff spot.
The Leafs have dug a deep hole, and while they have shown flashes of improvement, they have produced few truly convincing 60-minute performances. Success in 2026 will require consistency. If they can maintain this level of goaltending, defensive structure, and power-play efficiency, they may have a chance to climb back into the race. Only time will tell.