Life after Mitch Marner is going to be interesting for the Maple Leafs. David Alter offers his latest thoughts on where Nick Robertson fits in.
When Toronto Maple Leafs’ Brad Treliving revealed to the media that Mitch Marner was “heading to market” and likely on his way out, the daunting task of replacing the player’s offense hit home. Later in the scrum, he was asked about if he would extend a qualifying offer to Nick Robertson. He eventually did, but not before adding that the player “can score”. In fact, if Robertson remains a Leaf after his new deal is consummated following arbitration, seeing him build on a career-high 15 goals in 69 games would certainly help.
Drafted 53rd overall in the 2019 NHL Draft, Robertson’s six years in Toronto have been marked by far more downs than ups. The 23-year-old struggled with injuries early in his career, which prevented him from gaining enough experience to clear the waiver threshold. The Leafs, ever the savvy negotiators, took full advantage of the situation. This was particularly evident in the 2023-24 season when he was constantly moved on and off the roster as the club navigated the tightrope of the salary cap. Despite the unresolved trade request from last summer, which never went through, Robertson set career highs, yet was limited to just three of Toronto’s 13 playoff games.
The Arbitration Showdown
Now, for the first time in his career, Robertson has leverage. If this case goes all the way to a hearing, we can expect the Leafs’ arguments to be focused on why he’s worth the lower end of the projected compensation. So, what’s a fair price for Robertson? According to AFPAnalytics, he’s projected to get a two-year deal with a value of $1,556,650 AAV. That’s a healthy raise from his one-year, $875,000 contract from last season, but it’s certain that Robertson’s camp will be pushing for much more. Arbitration cases, historically, tend to lean toward the player if the comparables they present are strong.
A Warning from the Past: The Samsonov Case
There’s a lot of motivation for Toronto to settle this before a hearing even starts. We all remember the last time the Leafs went to arbitration—it was with goaltender Ilya Samsonov. Samsonov was ultimately awarded a career-high $3.55 million for the 2023-24 season, but the process took a toll. The goaltender admitted the arbitration case affected his confidence, which likely contributed to a season where he struggled badly and was even placed on waivers at one point. While Robertson is a forward and his situation is different, the Leafs can ill afford to go through that kind of confidence-shaking situation again. Once a hearing begins, it’s often felt that everyone loses, which is exactly why so many of these cases are settled beforehand.
A Breakout Awaits?
If the Leafs want to keep Robertson around, they will need a breakout year from him once his new contract is in place. With high-scoring forward Mitch Marner now a Vegas Golden Knight, the team will be relying on a committee to fill that void unless another trade materializes. This is the perfect storm for a player like Robertson. The opportunity to bust through offensively has never been greater, and with a new coaching staff, there seemed to be a bit more of an edge in his game last season. Scoring 20-plus goals would go a long way and would be a massive moment for a player who once scored 55 goals with the Peterborough Petes—a feat that earned him his fast-tracked NHL debut in the 2020 playoffs. The opportunity is there for Nick Robertson. It’s on the Leafs to make sure they handle this correctly.