Despite an impressive run, the Atlantic Division is as competitive as ever. David Alter asseses the Maple Leafs’ chances heading into the 4 Nations break.
The Toronto Maple Leafs head into the 4 Nations Face-Off with a respectable 33-20-2 record. Their 68 points in 55 games put them second in the Atlantic Division, which is probably where most prognosticators expected them to be situated. However, what was unexpected is how the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators have surged in recent weeks.
The Red Wings were struggling big time until Dec. 26 when they elected to fire head coach Derek Lalonde and replace him with veteran bench boss Todd McLellan. Since that time, the club has rattled off a 15-5-1 record with two different seven-game winning streaks in that span. They went from forgetting about the playoffs entirely to sitting in the second wild card spot.
The Senators have been a bit less streaky and more consistent to earn their 29-23-4 record, giving them fourth in the Atlantic Division, one point above Detroit. The sixth-place team is the Boston Bruins, who face the prospect of missing the playoffs for the first time in nine seasons. With 60 points, they’re only eight points back of the Leafs heading into this little break here.
The club that finishes sixth in the Atlantic Division is going to be very disappointed, and it could just come down to which team goes on a losing streak down the stretch. Of course, finishing fifth or fourth in the Atlantic is no guarantee of playoff success, either, if any of the Metropolitan teams catch fire down the stretch.
Should the Leafs be Concerned About Their Spot? Hardly.
What is helping the Leafs right now is they seem to play better on the road, and they have a lot of those coming up. A total of 16 out of Toronto’s 27 games remaining are away from Scotiabank Arena (59 percent). They have a 14-9-2 record on the road this season and are coming off a successful road trip out west where they went 3-1-0. The Leafs, along with the Senators, have the easiest strength of schedule remaining, as they are tied with the Senators at an easy.530.
But the positives only increase. The Leafs got Anthony Stolarz back in the lineup last week. Missing eight weeks following a procedure to remove a loose body in his knee, the goaltender returned and picked up where he left off, making 26 saves on 27 shots in a 3-1 victory against the Seattle Kraken on Feb. 6. Along with Joseph Woll, Toronto looks secure in net. With Stolarz returning, the Leafs are as healthy as they’ve ever been with only Calle Jarnkrok (hernia), Connor Dewar (upper-body injury), and Jani Hakanpaa (knee) being the only players on injured reserve.
That doesn’t mean the Leafs are content with the roster they have now. They would definitely like an additional centre, someone who can play at either 2C or 3C, but a bonafide 2C is going to be very expensive. Toronto doesn’t have their first-round pick in 2025 to dangle at teams and have less of an appetite to give up their 2026 first choice.
Toronto could also use another depth defenseman. The real question is will that be enough to get the Leafs to where they want to be?
Toronto has spent the first two-thirds of this season trying to play a better brand of ‘playoff’ hockey under new coach Craig Berube. In theory, they shouldn’t tinker too much. But if they’re in win-now mode, whomever they get, it has to be the right fit. The prospects’ depth is a little thin.