The Toronto Maple Leafs are at a crossroads. After dropping all three games of their recent road trip through Washington, Nashville, and Dallas, the pressure is mounting for a drastic change to salvage their season. While the coaching staff may point to marginal improvements during the latter half of the trip, the locker room appears to have run out of patience for moral victories. David Alter reports.
Underperformance of the “Big Three”
The most disappointing development has been the significant underperformance of the team’s top offensive weapons. Auston Matthews has struggled throughout the season to replicate the 60-plus goal-scoring pace he set in previous years. This frustration was evident in Dallas where, despite the team playing well, Matthews failed to record a single shot attempt at 5-on-5.
Similarly, captain John Tavares has been quiet, producing only two goals and two assists over his last 14 games. However, the most alarming shift is seen in William Nylander. Despite leading the team with 36 points, he has gone 11 straight games without a goal.
Known for being “calm under pressure,” Nylander’s armor finally seems to be cracking. “I don’t know if I ever felt like this before,” a downbeat Nylander admitted after the game in Dallas, noting that this level of futility is foreign to him. Even during his rookie season in 2015-16, when the team lacked expectations, he didn’t feel this weight. Today, the pressure of a championship-starved city is clearly taking its toll.
Coaching and Special Teams Troubles
With confidence at an all-time low, head coach Craig Berube is finding himself on the hot seat. While Berube has consistently pushed for a structured defensive system, the results haven’t followed. The power play has officially bottomed out, most recently failing on four key opportunities against the Stars. If the team cannot find a spark, questions regarding Berube’s future may be answered before the New Year.
The Betting Perspective: A Dangerous “Fade”
From a Bodog betting perspective, the Maple Leafs have become a dangerous “fade”. Historically a favorite for “Over” bettors due to their high-octane offense, the current reality is much bleaker.
The Total: Bettors may find more value in the “Under” for Toronto’s team totals until the power play is no longer among the league’s worst.
Player Props: Nylander, once a lock for “Anytime Goalscorer” props, is now considered a risky bet.
Futures: The Leafs have plummeted to +4500 in Stanley Cup futures. While they currently hold the second-worst record in the NHL, they are listed at +3500 to finish the season in last place—a line that currently offers significant value.
Looking Ahead
As the Leafs return home, they will likely remain favorites in the betting lines, but their grip on that status is slipping. With more than half a season remaining, there is still time for a “regression to the mean” and a potential run that could pay off big for those who still believe. However, at this point, it is difficult to see a path to a championship with the team’s confidence so thoroughly shot.