This could be the year the Maple Leafs miss out for the first time in 10 years, writes David Alter.
There is still a lot of hockey for the Toronto Maple Leafs to play, but if the first 17 games of the 2025-26 regular season are any indication, the club could be in for quite a bumpy ride.
It’s hard to tell what’s real and what isn’t with this club. The Maple Leafs’ 8-8-1 record is mediocre, but the team’s performance has been arguably some of the worst hockey in the NHL. They have a league-worst 3.82 goals per game through games played on Nov. 11. In that span, their power play ranks in a tie for 24th place. Their penalty kill is 21st. But perhaps the most alarming thing about everything is that even though they are scoring goals, they lead the NHL in goals for above expected at 8.5 in 5-on-5 situations, meaning they’ve been lucky in that regard.
There is also the fact that the Leafs have played 12 of their 17 games at home, and 14 of those 17 games have occurred against teams that failed to make the playoffs last season. Toronto’s goaltending, which was one of the best in the NHL last season, has spiraled to the bottom of the league. It didn’t help that Anthony Stolarz has had to carry much of the workload after Joseph Woll had to depart the club for personal reasons. He’s wearing down a little bit, having been pulled twice against the Bruins last week (only once due to performance and the other due to injury). Woll is likely coming back soon, and that should help things provided he regains his form.
But the good news for Toronto is the league has never been more wide open. Despite their abysmal numbers, the NHL entered action on Nov. 12 just five points back of first place in the division. This remarkable amount of parity is best highlighted by who is sitting atop the standings. In fact, 1st and seventh are just separated by those five points in a remarkable amount of parity seen in the Eastern Conference, unlike anything we’ve ever seen.
Did you have the Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins and Ottawa Senators ranked 1, 2, and 3 at this point in the year?
Yeah, I didn’t think so.
It’s way way way too early to write off the Maple Leafs. There are problems, for sure. But I think these are the things that good teams go through early in the year that make them better. How many times have we seen the Leafs struggle in October only to have a good November? The narrative got boring. Let them struggle a bit longer as they learn how to play tight defensive playoff hockey.
Right now on Bodog, the Leafs futures to win the Stanley Cup have fallen to a low of . Now might be a good time to get in at such attractive odds before they go on a heater. But I always feel the smart value plays are when sentiment is lowest. Like when a great investor buys following a selloff.
There are questions about the health of No. 34 and the current play of the defense. The Leafs don’t have a lot of depth. The departure of a player like Mitch Marner looms large at a time like this, but not having No. 34 in addition could certainly test Toronto’s depth, which already seems to be a bit weak. Buckle up. The ride could get bumpier still. But just as shaky as it gets, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Leafs turn it around by beating some good teams and shift the public narrative.